Analysis of Russian & Chinese Influence in Central Europe

Security Strategies Program is publishing the second part of its publication “How do EU Members States’, Canadian and the United States Intelligence Agencies Assess Russian and Chinese Influence Operations?”. This second report examines Russian and Chinese influence in the Central European region. The aim of the re-port is to more closely cover the actual events that have already happened in Central Europe and analyze them as part of the larger picture. The report is divided into two parts: Russia and China. In both cases, the report will first go through the short- and long-term goals for the countries. These goals have been adjusted to the context of Central Europe: what is the value of Central Europe for Russia and China? How does the region work as a mean towards larger foreign policy goals, and how does the region work as an end itself? Read more in the report. Číst dále

Vulnerabilities to Russian Influence in Montenegro

With a population of a little more than 650,000 citizens, Montenegro is NATO’s newest and smallest member. It joined the Alliance controversially and without a majority of public support in June 2017 (“The World Factbook: Montenegro”). Though Montenegro is small, its admission into NATO is viewed as a big win for the Alliance. The NATO win, however, is not in terms of what Montenegro can provide militarily – it has an army of a mere 2,000 soldiers – but in terms of the message it sends to Russia and other Western Balkan nations.

However, despite NATO membership, Russian influence in the country remains significant and has shown no signs of going away. This influence is seen in nearly all levels of Montenegrin society, but most prominently in the economic, political, civil society, media, and religious realms. Russia relies heavily on disinformation and uses its proxy agents to promote its agenda directly and indirectly in the country. The high level of corruption in Montenegro and its weak institutions provides the fuel that allows Russian influence to take hold and infiltrate all levels of society without any recourse. This poses a major threat not only to Montenegro, but to the broader Western Balkan region and to both NATO and the EU. It also damages Montenegro’s chances of EU accession in 2025, which the majority of the population supports, and feels is necessary for Montenegro’s economic prosperity.

Read the full Kremlin Watch Report.

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Kremlin Watch Strategy

2019 marks five years of highly aggressive behavior by the Russian Federation towards Western democracies. When Russia started a war against Georgia and subsequently occupied a fifth of its territory in 2008, the West failed to respond, naively believing that it could appease an aggressor. In 2014, the authoritarian regime led by President Vladimir Putin started the war against Ukraine, and at the same time, Moscow began to mobilize intensive hostile influence operations against Western democracies. 

Kremlin Watch Strategy offers a response with 20 specific measures for national governments which European countries must implement. This response is co-signed by 29 experts on security policy from all over Europe.

 

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The Significance and Modalities of Deterrence: The Current Military & Strategic Situation in the Baltics

This text highlights the deterrent and reassuring measures as decided at last three NATO summits, including the Enhanced Forward Presence and the need of their reinforcement.

The initial premise is that deterrence is not a “pointless provocation with a potential for escalation.” In its core, it is a “peaceful” concept. We do not need deterrence so we could fight; we need it so we would not have to.

Read the full report in PDF. Číst dále

The NATO Eastern Flank and the US Military Presence In The Region

When Russia started military operations in eastern Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, both sides of the Atlantic reacted by force posture changes and economic sanctions. Where the USA changed also its strategic doctrine, Europe has not.  A wide range of policy recommendations by the US strategic thinkers demonstrates the fact that the United States took the events in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and the meddling into the US elections as a genuine game changer. It should be a common endeavor of all countries on NATO´s Eastern Flank that the build-up of US troops in the region is eventually NATO-ized.

Reader the full report in PDF.

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The Significance and Modalities of Deterrence: The Current Military & Strategic Situation in the Baltics

European Values Think-Tank presents a new report by the Security Strategies Program Head, Martin Svárovský. The text is reflecting the need for deterrent and reassuring measures in the form of the European Reassurance Initiative / European Deterrence Initiative along with the Enhanced Forward Presence and their further reinforcement, especially in the Baltics. PDF available here.

Islamic Extremism in Germany

The challenge of countering Islamic extremism in Germany continues to vex policy makers, the security community and the wider public. The paper identifies key Islamic extremist actors in Germany and analyses the threat they pose to the German liberal-order. Authored by Kay Westenberger and Jan Stehlík of the Internal Security Program, it is available in English and GermanČíst dále