2019 marks five years of highly aggressive behavior by the Russian Federation towards Western democracies. When Russia started a war against Georgia and subsequently occupied a fifth of its territory in 2008, the West failed to respond, naively believing that it could appease an aggressor. In 2014, the authoritarian regime led by President Vladimir Putin started the war against Ukraine, and at the same time, Moscow began to mobilize intensive hostile influence operations against Western democracies. 

Kremlin Watch Strategy offers a response with 20 specific measures for national governments which European countries must implement. This response is co-signed by 29 experts on security policy from all over Europe.

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This text highlights the deterrent and reassuring measures as decided at last three NATO summits, including the Enhanced Forward Presence and the need of their reinforcement.

The initial premise is that deterrence is not a “pointless provocation with a potential for escalation.” In its core, it is a “peaceful” concept. We do not need deterrence so we could fight; we need it so we would not have to.

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When Russia started military operations in eastern Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, both sides of the Atlantic reacted by force posture changes and economic sanctions. Where the USA changed also its strategic doctrine, Europe has not.  A wide range of policy recommendations by the US strategic thinkers demonstrates the fact that the United States took the events in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and the meddling into the US elections as a genuine game changer. It should be a common endeavor of all countries on NATO´s Eastern Flank that the build-up of US troops in the region is eventually NATO-ized.

Reader the full report in PDF.

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Recently the discourse on work of civil society organizations has been changing in countries in the Eastern Neighborhood (EN) region. This disrupting issue has impact on the stability of the EN states and societies and therefore it affects the future of their European aspirations. The organizations are under pressure of the direct disinformation campaign, which underestimate the solidarity within the whole country. Based on the experience of the European Values Think-Tank (EVTT) we will teach them how to defend themselves better and how to expose these illegitimate methods of influence.

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European Values Center for Security Policy is organizing a conference on disinformation, centered on Georgia and Western Balkans case studies, in cooperation with Transition Promotion Program of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and International Visegrad Fund, under auspices of MEP Markéta Gregorová of Greens/European Free Alliance.

We will be covering the state of play of Kremlin’s influence, discussing ways of facing this threat and sharing lessons on personal security in this line of work. Useful perspectives from Georgia and Western Balkans will be supplemented by our own experience from the Czech Republic.

The conference will take place on December 3rd in Brussels. 

Please register using the form below:

PROGRAM:

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The team of the European Values Center for Security Policy welcomes Ms. Mariam Tsitsikashvili and Mr. Richard Kraemer in our Kremlin Watch Program.

Non-resident Senior Fellow

Richard Kraemer

Richard is the President of the US-Europe Alliance and a Eurasia Program fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Within Richard’s research interests fall the politics of Western Balkans, Turkey and Afghanistan, Russian interventions, and the role that democracy assistance plays in the maintenance of U.S. national security.

“I’m excited and proud to join the European Values team. For me, the Center’s uniquely proactive and investigatory research reaches a higher level as EV’s works unequivocally reflect its commitment to the defense and preservation of liberal democracy in Europe. I enthusiastically welcome this opportunity to contribute to the Center’s expansion analytically and institutionally, drawing from my work in Southeastern Europe and beyond,” comments new Non-resident Senior Fellow Richard Kraemer.

Richard’s bio:

Richard Kraemer is the President of the US-Europe Alliance and a Eurasia Program fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, where his recent research is largely focused on Turkish and Balkan affairs. Previously, Richard managed the National Endowment for Democracy’s (NED) Program Portfolio on Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey. Before his work at NED, he oversaw programs in those states and the Levant at the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE). Richard also taught law and researched at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. He is an affiliated expert of the Public International Law and Policy Group, where he advised the governments of Georgia and Montenegro. A member of the New York State Bar Association, Richard holds a JD from American University and a BA from the College of William and Mary. He’s appeared in numerous international and U.S. media. He is professionally proficient in Polish, Farsi, and Dari.

Non-resident Fellow

Mariam Tsitsikashvili

Mariam is active in the field of foreign and security policy. Her research focus is oriented on European integration, foreign state-sponsored disinformation, and malign influence.

“I am really honored to join a team of dedicated professionals at the European Values Center for Security Policy. This group has become a leader in exposing and confronting instruments of malign influence and disinformation operations not only in the Czech Republic but at a European level as well. With its initiatives and programs, the European Values Center for Security Policy has proved to be an engine for bringing about a vision, ideas, and methodologies on how to best withstand the increasing threats of foreign state-sponsored disinformation and malign activities. Being a part of this amazing team of professionals is a great opportunity as well as responsibility for me,” says new Kremlin Watch Non-resident Fellow Mariam Tsitsikashvili.

Mariam’s bio:

Mariam Tsitsikashvili holds the position of Project Manager and Research Fellow at Georgia’s Reforms Associates (GRASS), a multi-profile think tank established in Georgia. She supervises projects related to European integration, foreign state-sponsored disinformation, and malign influence. Her research interests include foreign and security policy. Before taking the position of Project Manager, she worked as a Political Analyst at FactCheck Georgia. She holds a Master’s Degree in Social Sciences, with a major in Eurasian and Caucasus Studies, and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Tbilisi State University. She also studied International Relations at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland.

We are proud to be members of the Open Information Partnership.

The Open Information Partnership is a diverse project that brings together think tanks, fact-checkers, independent media and grassroots organisations. The partnership connects organisations throughout Europe to support efforts to counter disinformation, misinformation and the deliberate manipulation of information.

As European specialists in foreign and security policy, we encourage the Members of the European Parliament to ask Josep Borell, the Nominee for EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, these questions:

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On Russia:

1. Do you agree that EU sanctions on Russia should be maintained as long as Russia occupies Crimea and organizes and supports war in Eastern Ukraine?

2. Which individuals to do you expect to be your key advisors on Russia-related issues?

3. What steps and measures will you take to reduce the influence of illicit Russian funding to European political movements and parties?

4. What measures will you take to increase Europeans’ digital resilience to foreign state-sponsored disinformation campaigns?

5. How will you make sure that the Commissioner for Neighbourhood won’t be influenced by bilateral issues (e.g. between Hungary and Ukraine)?

6. As High Representative, will you be defending the five guiding principles of EU-Russia relations? If you believe they should be modified, then in what way?

7. As the EU has a new cyber diplomacy sanction toolkit, have there already been instances where you believe it should have been applied?

8. Which strategies and measures will you propose to deter and raise costs for malign activity against the EU conducted by Russian entities?

9. As High Representative, will you explicitly criticise Russia when it spreads malign disinformation against the EU, its representatives, members, or policies?

10. Do you believe that Nord Stream 2 increases European energy security?

11. Will you allow your advisers to provide interviews to known disinformation outlets such as RT?

12. As High Representative, what safeguards would you attach to EU support of Syria’s reconstruction in order to ensure that our funds will not be used for repressive purposes?

13. The Government of Spain in the past has granted Russian naval vessels transiting to Syria access to its refuelling facilities in the Mediterranean. As High Commissioner, do you believe that the EU requires a policy or set of principles regarding indirect support of Russian military operations abroad?

14. Which specific measures from the EU Action Plan on Disinformation do you consider unsatisfactory, and which additional measures are you proposing for countering what the European Council calls “pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns”?

15. Your predecessor was sometimes criticised for prioritising visits to the Southern Neighbourhood over the Eastern Partnership states. How will you apportion your visits between the two?

16. What is your plan for securing the withdrawal of Russian forces from eastern Ukraine, Crimea and Georgia?

17. Would you support efforts provide a NATO Membership Action Plan for Georgia, and would you favour reiteration of the Bucharest Summit commitment that ‘Georgia and Ukraine will become members of NATO’?

18. Do you agree with EU Ambassador to Russia Marcus Ederer that EU should perform “sweeping expansion of engagement with Russia in fields including 5G communications and personal data protection”?

On China:

19. How do you envision the future of intelligence sharing with NATO allies who raise legitimate concerns about cybersecurity and espionage? Should European 5G infrastructure depend on China’s technology?

20. What will be your response if China exerts pressure on individual EU member states?

21. How will you react if China decides to pressure or blackmail a single EU member state to coerce compliance with its policies?

22. How will you respond if China arbitrarily takes an EU citizen hostage for political reasons?

23. How will you support Canada in the matter of its two nationals’ arbitrary detention by Chinese entities?

24. Would you sign the letters currently signed by 22 nations criticizing China for its network of concentration camps for Uighurs in Xinjiang?

25. Which individuals to do you expect to be your key advisors on China-related issues?

26. How do you believe that the EU should support human rights lawyers in China, especially those who have been detained or prosecuted for demanding China’s compliance with its own constitution?

27. How can the EU give more substance to the EU-China Human Rights Dialogue? Will you urge the PRC to send more senior representatives to this forum? What specific topics should be on the agenda?

28. How can the EU counter Chinese policies in Africa that amount to ‘state capture’?

29. Do you believe that tech companies with known complicity in espionage on behalf of Chinese entities should be granted contracts in European telecommunications networks?

230. As High Representative, will you establish a strategic communications team at EEAS focused on China?

Coordinator:

Jakub Janda, Executive Director of European Values Center for Security Policy,  janda@evropskehodnoty.cz

Co-signed:

• Willem Aldershoff, Former head of unit, European Commission, NL
• Lukas Andriukaitis, Associate Director,  Digital Forensic Research Lab of the Atlantic Council, LT
• Jessikka Aro, Investigative Journalist, Finish Public Broadcaster YLE, FI
• Erkki Bahovski, Editor of Diplomaatia, International Centre for Defence and Security, EE
• Kamil Basaj, Director, Info Ops Poland Foundation, PL
• Eto Buziashvili, Digital Researcher, Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research, GE
• Roland Freudenstein, Policy Director, Martens Centre, BE
• Paata Gaprindashvili, Director, Georgia´s Reforms Associates (GRASS), GE
• Gustav C. Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow and Acting Director of the Wider Europe Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), AT
• Rebecca Harms, Former MEP, DE
• Pavel Havlicek, Analyst, Association for International Affairs, CZ
• Marcel Van Herpen, Chairman, The Cicero Foundation, NL
• Sorin Ionita, Senior Analyst, ExpertForum (EFOR), RO
• Jakub Janda, Executive Director, European Values Center for Security Policy, CZ
• Matej Kandrík, Executive Director, STRATPOL – Strategic Policy Institute, SK
• Tunne Kelam, retired MEP, EE
• Péter Krekó, Political Capital Institute, HU
• Marius Laurinavičius, Senior Fellow, Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis, LT
• Juraj Mesík, Climate and Energy Advisor, SFPA, SK
• Samantha North, Analyst, The Global Disinformation Index, UK
• Vít Novotný, Senior Fellow, Martens Centre, BE
• Bjarne Kim Pedersen, foreign policy analyst, DK
• Dmytro Potekhin, Founder & CEO,   FakesKiller.com, EE
• Giedrius Sakalauskas, Director, Res Publica, LT
• James Sherr, Senior Fellow, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute at the International Centre for Defence and Security, Estonia
• Alice Stollmeyer, Executive Director, Defending Democracy, NL
• Radu Tudor, Defence Analyst, RO
• Andreas Umland, Senior Fellow, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, DE
• Cécile Vaissié, Professor of Russia studies at Université Rennes, FR
• Volodymyr  Yermolenko, Editor-in-Chief,  UkraineWorld.org, Ukraine
• Ilya Zaslavskiy, Head of Research, Free Russia Foundation, RU

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